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Forecasting the Market for Electric Vehicles in California Using Conjoint Analysis

Robin Segal

Year: 1995
Volume: Volume16
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol16-No3-4
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Abstract:
Beginning in 1998 a percentage of large auto companies' sales in California must include zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs), which at this time art! synonymous with electric vehicles. Data on consumer values and the level of consumer acceptance for alternative fuel vehicles are necessary to determine the practicality of the State's policy. This paper presents the results of a forecast for alternative fuel vehicle purchases in California. This forecast uses conjoint analysis, a multi-attribute utility market forecast methodology developed within the field of marketing research. The forecast yields several types of results, including market simulations of the alternative fuel vehicle market, relative preferences among vehicle attributes, and the identification of market segments most likely to purchase each type of vehicle. The research suggests a market for electric vehicles too small to support California's ZEV sales mandate, and a very, large market for natural gas vehicles. This paper concludes with a discussion of automobile and electric utility industry interests with regard to these forecast market consequences.



Valuing Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles' Battery Capacity Using a Real Options Framework

Derek M. Lemoine

Year: 2010
Volume: Volume 31
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol31-No2-5
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Abstract:
Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) enable their drivers to choose whether to use electricity or gasoline, but this fuel flexibility benefit requires the purchase of additional battery capacity relative to most other vehicles. We value the fuel flexibility of PHEVs by representing the purchase of the battery as the purchase of a strip of call options on the price of transportation. We use a Kalman filter to obtain maximum likelihood estimates for three gasoline price models applied to a U.S. municipal market. We find that using a real options approach instead of a discounted cash flow analysis does not raise the retail price at which the battery pays for itself by more than $50/kWh (or by more than 15%). A discounted cash flow approach often provides a good approximation for PHEV value in our application, but real options approaches to valuing PHEVs� battery capacity or role in climate policy may be crucial for other analyses.



The Value of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles as Grid Resources

Ramteen Sioshansi and Paul Denholm

Year: 2010
Volume: Volume 31
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol31-No3-1
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Abstract:
Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) can become valuable resources for an electric power system by providing vehicle to grid (V2G) services, such as energy storage and ancillary services. We use a unit commitment model of the Texas power system to simulate system operations with different-sized PHEV fleets that do and do not provide V2G services, to estimate the value of those services. We demonstrate that a PHEV fleet can provide benefits to the system, mainly through the provision of ancillary services, reducing the need to reserve conventional generator capacity. Moreover, our analysis shows that PHEV owners are made better off by providing V2G services and we demonstrate that these benefits can reduce the time it takes to recover the higher upfront capital cost of a PHEV when compared to other vehicle types.



Developing a Smart Grid that Customers can Afford: The Impact of Deferrable Demand

Wooyoung Jeon, Jung Youn Mo, and Timothy D. Mount

Year: 2015
Volume: Volume 36
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.36.4.wjeo
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Abstract:
With more electricity generated from renewable sources, the importance of effective storage capacity is increasing due to its capability to mitigate the inherent variability of these sources, such as wind and solar power. However, the cost of dedicated storage is high and all customers eventually have to pay. Deferrable demand offers an alternative form of storage that is potentially less expensive because the capital cost is shared between providing an energy service and supporting the grid. This paper presents an empirical analysis to illustrate the beneficial effects of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) and thermal storage on the total system cost using data for a hot summer day in New York City. The analysis shows how customers can reduce total system costs and their bills by 1) shifting load from expensive peak periods to less expensive off-peak periods, 2) reducing the amount of installed conventional generating capacity needed to maintain System Adequacy, and 3) providing ramping services to mitigate the variability of generation from renewable sources. Moreover, this paper demonstrates economic benefits of different types of customers with different deferrable demand capabilities under two bill payment policies, flat price payment and optimum price payment, and it finally shows how long it takes for customers to fully pay back their initial capital costs of PHEV or thermal storage under two different policies.



The Impact of Electric Vehicle Density on Local Grid Costs: Empirical Evidence from Norway

Paal Brevik Wangsness and Askill Harkjerr Halse

Year: 2021
Volume: Volume 42
Number: Number 5
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.42.5.pwan
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Abstract:
While a rapid shift towards electric vehicles (EVs) will contribute to reducing carbon emissions from the transport sector, there are concerns that uncoordinated charging of EVs might impose challenges for the local electricity grid. Our study is the first to investigate this empirically in a country-wide analysis, using data from the country with the highest market share of EVs, namely Norway. We present the regulatory framework in which Norwegian grid companies operate and discuss the possible impact of EV charging. Using panel data on 107 grid companies over the period 2008–2017, we then estimate the effect of local growth in EVs on local grid costs. We find that increases in EV stock are associated with increases in costs which are both statistically and economically significant. However, there is a lot of heterogeneity in these results, where the effect on grid costs are higher for small grid companies in rural areas.



Abatement Technologies and their Social Costs in a Hybrid General Equilibrium Framework

Michael Miess, Stefan Schmelzer, Milan Šcasný, and Vedunka Kopecná

Year: 2022
Volume: Volume 43
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.43.2.mmie
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Abstract:
We present a novel methodology to integrate heterogeneous micro-founded preferences into a dynamic computable general equilibrium model. This integrated model is linked to a bottom-up technology-rich electricity model and a stock-flow vehicle accounting model to quantify the social costs of electric vehicles as an endogenous, demand-driven abatement technology. Emission abatement is achieved through consumer choices that are recognised as a central driver of endogenous technological change. Endogenously determined emissions from vehicle use, electricity generation, and production provide an input to quantify external costs attributable to air quality and carbon emissions. We find that carbon and vehicle registration tax policies induce a significant shift away from conventional vehicles towards electric vehicles in Austria by 2030. The shift to electric vehicles results in small overall economic costs, a substantial decline in fuel demand that exceeds the increase in electricity demand to charge vehicle batteries, and overall positive net environmental benefits.





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